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The Risks of a Catastrophic Deflationary Collapse
By Lawrence Tout
MidasLetter.com
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Eyes Wide Shut
It is ironic that mainstream economists and politicians are barking about the end of the recession and the beginnings of an economic recovery, when the hidden reality is that the underlying health of the economic system not much better (and some would argue worse) than one year ago when panic reigned in the markets.
 A combination of failed financial regulation, endemic corruption and computerized fraud have synergized to create a very fragile financial system. A system that is so incredibly huge, so incredibly un-transparent and so very unstable, that it currently still teeters on the brink of a greater collapse. One year later the shocks of the initial crisis are still reverberating around the markets and we have yet to see any concrete action taken to improve weak underlying economic fundamentals.
Many comparisons have been made to past crises and prognosticators argue whether we will see deflation or inflation, but its very possible that such arguments are invalid for three main reasons that predominate in markets today more than at any time in the past; these being mass, velocity and interconnectivity. Not only are the size of the debt/derivative/fraud problems so utterly underestimated and so much larger than at any other time in our history, but also modern day computer-driven trading means that should a crash sequence be initiated, subsequent price action declines will manifest very rapidly indeed. Combine this with the fact that global markets are now so interconnected and you have the recipe for the mother of all crashes.
Everyone seems more concerned whether we will have inflation or deflation but these longer term musings pale when we look at the more present dangers. The US is now saddled with a bloated and weakened financial system riddled throughout with a huge mass of unstable and largely unknown debts, awaiting any number of possible activatory triggers. I put it to the reader that the majority of market pundits do not fully comprehend either this current weakness of the system OR this incredible size and interconnectedness of toxic debt and fraudulent shares. Moreover, they underestimate the total speed with which such a system is now capable of collapsing should the appropriate trigger arise.
Derivatives As A Collapse Catalyst
Much has been written about derivatives however Buffet’s original and most fitting 2002 analogy is really all one needs to know – that they are indeed “financial weapons of mass destruction”. It is interesting to note, even with this foreknowledge, it did not prevent Buffet dipping his toes into the derivatives pool. A misguided decision which led to large losses from his derivative bets tied to the stock markets, seeing year-on-year profits falling 96% and a Berkshire Hathaway share decline of 45% over the peak crisis period.
Originally created to spread risk, their popularity and ubiquitousness becomes their downfall as the whiz kid quants at LTCM found out to their chagrin in 1998. Why are derivatives still so immensely popular in the banking system if their sheer volumes and opaqueness now pose such a dire systemic risk? Simply because when played correctly in a sympathetic and convivial market environment they can earn massive profits. Unfortunately human greed, something which Greenspan claims ignorance to, prevails in the opaque and deliberately unregulated OTC derivatives (OTCDs) market, and even using the official BIS figures (BIS), we have now seen this market balloon into a $592 trillion monster (as at end 2008, down 13.4% from 2007). Some commentators still insist the notional value is in excess of one quadrillion dollars. It will be interesting to see the updated BIS figures from their next imminently due derivatives report.
There is a fascinating PBS documentary (The Warning) which shows just how far Greenspan, Rubin and Summers went to hamstring Brooksley Born, the then head of the CFTC, in her attempt to pass legislation to get OTCDs regulated. After being lobbied aggressively by 13 of the largest investment banks to “get this woman off our backs”, Greenspan told Born in no uncertain terms that the potential unwinding of OTCD contracts brought about by her proposed regulatory legislation “would cause tremendous damage to the financial services industry.” Bear in mind Greenspan said this way back in 1998 when global derivatives totaled a mere $75 trillion. If there was a significant enough risk of systemic collapse then, via orderly legislative regulation and dignified unwinding of OTCD contracts, how will markets fare tomorrow from a disorderly exit from the wrong side of half a quadrillion dollars plus worth of OTCD contracts? Imagine the plunge in global markets as brokers are forced to liquidate even the kitchen sink, in an effort to cover highly leveraged margin calls as a multitude of opaquely structured financial derivatives implode in a chain reaction bringing down one under-funded counterparty after another.
That day in Congress when Greenspan, Rubin and Summers all dutifully testified that OTCDs were NOT a threat to the nation, Brooksley Born was asked what she was trying to protect. She replied “We are trying to protect the money of the American public which is at risk in these markets”. How prophetic she was but not just for this recent 2008 crisis phase. In that same year of congressional testimony ten years earlier, LTCM blew up in their faces. Yet even this was not an effective wake up call, with Greenspan blithely telling congress that he knew of no effective piece of legislation to prevent “people” (i.e. investment banks and hedge funds) from making “dumb mistakes”. What bullcrap!
“I’ve only lied to Congress five times I tell you!”
What was Greenspan thinking? That they could some how contain this financial cancer, or that if they looked the other way a spontaneous remission would effect itself? What was going through his little mind as he witnessed the mountain of OTCDs accumulate year after year until they finally dwarfed the GDP of the entire planet ten times over? It is quite clear that he had no wish to regulate OTCDs as he was firmly in the banker’s pockets. Wall street was left to regulate itself. The kids were put in charge of the candy shop and our future fate was forever sealed.
So here we sit ten years on, with a whole web of OTCD contracts, conservatively valued at an official $592 trillion, woven intricately throughout a global banking system that is, at best woefully under-funded, and at worst insolvent. FASB’s suspension of the mark-to-market accounting rules mean that banks hold numerous improperly valued, ‘marked-to-make-believe’ toxic assets off their balance sheets – the financial equivalent of sweeping their dirt under the carpet. Buffet’s nuclear analogy is totally apt as a failure of a significant counterparty will set off a chain reaction of further counterparty blowups. The will not be a set linearly collapsing dominoes where one brings down another then another in orderly sequence. This will be a exponential fission reaction where one sets off two, then four then eight, then sixteen, etc. Thus, in an already unstable system, well disseminated derivatives will act as the catalyst that speeds up the collapse reaction.
Market Dilution via Endemic Corruption and Fraud
Definition: Dilution (d?-?lü-sh?n): A thinned or weakened state.
It seems like Matt Taibi's recent article in the Rolling Stone has reminded everyone that we still have a problem with ‘naked shorting’ with the SEC being the biggest joke in town. Jim Puplava did a great Crime of the Century series of interviews last year with the likes of Bud Burrell and Patrick Byrne.
I would advise anyone who missed them to give them a listen to get just an inkling of the systemic corruption that pervades the markets. Bud Burrell, a very sharp guy, believes there is one naked counterfeit share for every legitimate share in the US markets. You may want to read that last sentence again. Scary indeed! Even with all the will in the world, the SEC would be farting in the wind against such endemic larceny.
Markopolos summed up the financial mafia succinctly enough during the Madoff Testimony:
"Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it's not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it's the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives." Harry Markopolos in Congressional Testimony
Links:
Jim Puplava's interviews with Bud Burrell:
12 Jul 08 http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0712-2.mp3
11 Oct 08 http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1011-2.mp3
Puplava interview with Patrick Byrne:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2007-0331-2.mp3
and slide show: http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html
Bloomberg naked short expose:
Bloomberg Special Report - Phantom Shares http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fcre8P2UUY
Criminal syndicates have unfortunately moved with the times. Rather than ripping off trucks full of cigarettes or liquor and selling them illegally, it is now far easier and far more profitable to own a hedge fund in a Caribbean tax haven, sit by the pool sipping piña coladas whilst selling phantom shares, illegally naked shorting small companies to destruction and profiting from manipulated price action. It is less traceable, largely unregulated and with little worry as the financial cops (SEC) are asleep at their desks. Hyperbole perhaps but probably not that far from the mark.
A combination of lax regulation, internet trading and insufficient manpower resources means market fraud is now pervasive at all levels of the financial system. It pervades the entire system from company accounting, through brokerages all the way to the top. Governments, and more particularly, Central Banks have long been defrauding the public with their debt and fiat-based financial systems, which only serve to destroy public wealth via inflation or transfer wealth (via bailouts and increased taxation) to privately owned banks in the hands of the few. It has always been so but now with the credit crisis, we are seeing an ever increasing tendency for market and currency interventions by central banks (ZeroHedge).
As Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) pointedly comments “there are no more markets, just interventions”. Nowhere is price suppression more evident, as catalogued by GATA over the last decade, than in the precious metals (PM) markets. Nay-sayers to the manipulationists belong to the same class as the ‘global warming’ brigade. They can be identified by the same attributes. They are quick to vociferously denounce, they loathe to come to open debate, they ignore non-commissioned unbiased factual evidence, they rely on pumping erroneous Goebbel’s-style propaganda to get their message across, and wanting of any valid arguments they most often resort to derisory tactics against any person who tries to put across an opposing viewpoint. For this breed of disinformationist, time is their enemy as eventually they go the way of the dodo and the ‘flat-earthers’. Each passing day sees acknowledgements of market manipulation by more and more market commentators. (Thomson, Bloomberg, Hathaway, Russell)
I mention the PMs, as interesting developments look like they may currently be coming to a head in the Comex and ETF markets. Through the work of GATA and others, it is becoming more evident that gold and silver fraud is prevalent both in the paper derivative and physical bullion markets. Some salient points that have come to light are:
- Physical Bullion Inventory Shortage; there are signs of increasing physical bullion liquidity problems at major trading exchanges such as the Comex and the LME, as evidenced by ‘significant lumpy transactions’, increasing price volatility, the reemergence of non-LBMA-purity coin melt bars and generous 25% premium cash settlement offers to futures contract holders rather than physical deliveries (Kirby, Willie). Also there have been requests for repatriation of offshore sovereign reserves. Germany and Switzerland are reportedly demanding the return of their custodial gold from the U.S. plus Hong Kong and Dubai are also planning to withdraw their bullion holdings from UK depositories.
- Growing Suspicion of ETFs; closer inspection of the GLD and SLV ETF Prospectus’ show incongruencies pointing towards the conclusion that the paper shares may not be fully backed by physical gold or silver (Kim, Mayer). Some even point to these funds being derivative paper trading tools complicit in the ongoing physical bullion price suppression. It is interesting to note that some custodians of the ETFs are also some of the main holders of substantial market short positions. Greenlight Capital has notably sold $500 million of the GLD ETF and bought physical bullion although they downplay the risk angle and attribute the action to fee cost savings.
- Double Allocation of Physical Gold; Adrian Douglas in ‘How much imaginary gold has been sold?’ (Part1, Part2) argues that the volume of gold traded on the London bullion exchange could not be supported by the reported sales of 15,000 tons (482 million ounces). By Douglas’ calculations, the London market needed a minimum of 64,000 tons (2.05 billion ounces) of gold to be sold to support its reported trading volume. He believes that any disclosure that this much extra gold has been sneaked onto the market, leaving less inventory available to cover open contracts in London, could cause a panic in the gold market. Is the London bullion market operating on a fractional-reserve basis with 64,000 tonnes of gold sold via unallocated accounts against a maximum reserve of only 15,000 tonnes? If he is correct then some vaults hold bullion bars with multiple allocations. Douglas estimates that paper gold derivatives dwarf physical bullion by at least 20-1.
- Double Allocation of Physical Silver; it seems that there may be also problems in the silver ETFs. ZeroHedge analyzed SLVs bar list and found that during their research into the inventory lists of the iShares SLV and London-based ETFS physical silver funds, there were discovered multiple anomalies which cannot be easily dismissed. These included the presence of internal duplicates, rough internal duplicates, weight duplicates, statistical clustering, and cross-reference duplicates (ZeroHedge). Jason Hommel estimates silver paper derivatives dwarf physical bullion by around 100-1.
- ETF Proxy Settlement; New York and Tokyo commodity exchanges permit their gold futures contracts to be settled not in real bullion but in shares of gold ETFs. This essentially allows the gold shorts (and the exchanges themselves, which guarantee futures contracts) to transfer their obligations to third parties that may not have the metal they claim to have. It is now apparently legal for precious metals futures contracts to be settled by delivery of paper ETF shares rather than physical bullion (The Alchemists).
There is a far more comprehensive summary by Eric deCarbonnel, that has just come out, well worth reading in which he concludes with the following;
“Basically, the gold market operates on a fractional reserve basis. On average there are several claims of ownership on each gold bar conforming to London Good Delivery (LGD) standard on the "pool" of gold which acts as liquidity for the massive OTC gold trade based in London. Similarly, there are several claims of ownership on the gold bars in Comex wherehouses [sic]. If a sufficient number of market participants become concerned about this (which is happening) and there is a stampede to take delivery of physical bullion, the entire gold market will come crashing down, taking most of the global financial system with it. Market failure isn't a risk, it is a certainty. The unregulated gold market is an accident waiting to happen.” (Gold Market Reaching The Breaking Point)
I could go on, but the main point to take away from this is that the ongoing gold and silver price suppression, initially via the dumping of physical bullion into the market and more recently by the use of paper trading derivatives, is possibly being finally curtailed by shortages of the physical metal as more and more investors request delivery. This in turn is uncovering fraudulent issues that exist within the precious metals markets which if made public could cause severe market dislocations and significantly higher PM prices. Rising gold prices will put pressure on all fiat currencies, not only impacting market confidence. They also increase the chances of precipitating currency crises and derivatives implosions.
Will the Next Wave Sink The Ship?
 As we have mentioned, this current combination of high levels of interconnected toxic derivatives and systemic fraud make for very unstable market foundations. Yet these are foundations that have already been weakened by the first wave of the credit crisis where we saw write downs, bankruptcies and bailouts of major institutions. With this systemic fragility already in place, we must ask ourselves if the markets can survive another wave of failures? A wave which is looking increasingly likely to hit pretty soon.
There are already indications that CIT, Capmark Financial and Citigroup are in serious trouble (Bloomberg, Mish, Denninger). This Friday CIT alone lost 24% from its share price and finally filed for Chapter 11. Capmark is bankrupt and was a leader in the Commercial Real Estate derivatives markets. What will be the knock-on effect? Failure of large derivative holders could act as potent collapse triggers affecting under-insured and under-capitalized counterparties. Or will we see a sovereign debt default be the trigger just like the 1998 Russian financial crisis sparked the LTCM meltdown. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard views Japan as a possible disaster waiting to happen (Pritchard).
Additionally many market technicians are becoming increasingly wary of current market technicals;
“There are some very dangerous patterns we have identified. We see rising bearish wedges… with downsides to the March 2009 lows… and they look almost near completion… they may need another week or two to finish… we will get another catastrophic plunge…if we break below the march 09 lows then another set of patterns kicks in with devastating downside potential close to zero in the major averages.” (Bob McHugh.mp3)
The Don of Dow Theory, Richard Russell, warns “I don't like the market action, please be careful.” He is looking for a secondary reaction after the March’09 low so as to clarify the primary trend of the market. He thinks we could be on the edge of a secondary reaction right now. What happens thereafter to the DOW Averages is crucial in showing true trend.
“Following a secondary reaction, if BOTH Averages (Industrials and Transports) rise to new highs, the primary trend is taken to be bullish. Following the lows of a secondary reaction, there will be a rally. If the rally fails to take both Averages to new highs, and the Averages then turn down and break to new lows, the primary trend is taken to be re-confirmed as bearish.”
The Transportation Average, as seen below, recently turned decisively weak and has since given a bearish signal. Watch closely to see if the Industrials follow suit. If they do then this bear-market rally will finally be over and we will see fear start to re-enter market sentiment.
Russell again: “Interesting, but I disagree with Bernanke in one basic area. I believe the primary trend of the stock market and the economy is bearish. And I don't believe an injection of trillions of Fed-made fiat dollars can halt a bear market and turn it into a bull market. Yes, Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression, but he is not a Dow Theorist. According to Dow Theory, neither the primary trend of the stock market nor the economy can be manipulated.”
Not in the long term anyway. So regardless of whether the DOW turns decisively down in a week or some months, and regardless of whether that downturn is the result of slow continued economic weakening, a sudden large corporate failure or some type of exogenous or geopolitical event, the DOW turning decisively down, should be a red flashing warning light. The fear of not wanting to be in the markets for another Oct08-Mar09 wipeout-experience, could give rise to another stampede for the exits which ironically will hasten the decline. If we pass Dow6500 look out below.
Recently there has been a lot of debate centering around the inflation/deflation argument. The inflationary effects of the recent stimuli seem to be abating if the DOW action is anything to go by. However, we could well see the trend turn up again based on any future, inflationary FED action. Like a lot of people Eric Sprott does not see an end to Quantitative Easing (QE) even if the FED say they have finished at the end of this October:
“I do not think they will stop with the QE. They can’t. They can’t because they will not be able to keep the lights on for one, but also because they can’t allow a major financial institution to fail or we have global dominoes and a collapse of the financial system.” (Sprott1)
“The Q2 Flow of Funds Report published by the Federal Reserve revealed that the Federal Reserve purchased as much as half of the newly issued treasuries in the second quarter. This means that the Federal Reserve isn’t merely supporting the market for US treasuries… it is the market for US treasuries.” (Sprott2)
If the American consumer cannot step-up to the plate and unemployment keeps heading south we could well see deflationary forces get the upper hand. In his 29th Oct newsletter Russell comments: “The recent weakness in the stock market has an important significance. The weakening market implies that the Obama administration is failing to halt or reverse the primary bear trend. If the Bernanke-Geithner-Obama team fails to halt the bear market, it means that the forces of world deflation will dominate.”
Ultimately deflation will cleanse the system but it also comes with a lot of pain. In the meanwhile any inflation merely serves to delay the day of reckoning and make the downside more vicious. The bottom line is we will most likely get bouts of both inflation and deflation and in varying amounts, but from the viewpoint of this article they are BOTH equivalent. Why? Because regardless of which ‘flationary’ environment we experience they will BOTH add to the systemic weakening that is already in place. And they will do so until such time as the system finally has enough and suffers a catastrophic failure. One which will be so rapid (one week?) that the FED will simply not have time to re-inflate against rapid downward market momentum…
Terminal Warning – Speed kills! – A Catastrophic Deflationary Collapse Scenario
Quants are forever trying to define and predict market behavior with complex formulae and black box algorithms, however complexity is not required when dealing with fundamentals. If we do receive an apt trigger for a market crash, the huge mass of debt multiplied by the high velocity of forced liquidations and bankruptcies will create massive momentum to the downside (P = m x v).
Economics may be based on a number of things but it is ruled by confidence. The worldwide stock markets and most especially the DOW are our confidence barometers. When the DOW makes a sudden and concerted turn down, the smell of fear will once again be in the air just as it was one short year ago. Confidence in this latest (bear-market) rally is misguided at best and in reality unfounded. The ephemeral nature of this confidence, the five second attention span of wall street traders, with the crushing Dow6500 drop still embedded in the collective Wall Street psyche, and the fact that fear for most people is a far stronger emotion than greed, all combine to make a potent fuse waiting to be lit by one of any number of now ripened and impending triggers. No matter which trigger, a single one will activate all the others, as the interconnectedness within markets means no hierarchy is required. One will push all the others, so it is just a matter of which is the weakest link in the system.
An increasing likely possible hair-trigger could be the failure of a major corporation initiating a greater derivative chain melt-down. With the DOW being a most public measure of confidence in our world reserve currency, a decisive turn down in this index would be the global siren that signals a very large cliff ahead. The only pertinent question is how far will it have to fall until the passengers start bailing en masse?
Off the rails? What’s the ultimate price of trying to manipulate the markets?
Since 1987, circuit breaker levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) which determine how far the market has to fall to halt trading activity are set at 10%, 20% and 30%. Current DJIA circuit breaker levels for the 4th quarter 2009 are as follows:
Level 1 Halt
Requires a 950-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. and will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.
Level 2 Halt
A 1,950-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.
Level 3 Halt
A 2,900-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.
These halt levels are based on an averaged DJIA index of 9500 for the 3rd quarter. To put these halts in perspective the let us compare them to daily percentage drops of past crashes. Below are the top ten largest percentage declines for the DJIA on a daily basis:
Where is the 777 point plunge of 29th Sep’08 which really sparked mainstream acknowledgement of the credit crisis? Although being the largest point drop in the DOW’s history, it only ranks 20th in terms of daily percentage losses given the high of the DJIA at the time (11,139.94 to 10,365.45).
Interestingly, if one looks at the top 20 ALL TIME largest intraday point swings, 15/20 of these occurred 29th Sept. to 1st Dec. 2008 alone, during the peak of the credit crisis! This is a clear statistical trend showing us increasing volatility due to inherent systemic weaknesses. Here we are seeing the huge terminal wobbles of James Turk’s ‘spinning top’ analogy (Expect More Volatility) as instability enters the system. During all other post-war crashes the market has picked itself up, brushed itself off and got on with business. In this current crisis however we have seen reverberating swings in market confidence or what I would call a ‘boxer’s shaky-legs syndrome’. There is a certain amount of denial going around that we could one day receive a knockout punch. It is entirely possible however, that the next one or two downward waves in the markets could deliver that punch.
With ‘halt-level’ circuit breakers in place it is increasingly difficult to get a 20% or 30% drop in a single day. Of course rightly so, they were put in place after the Crash of ’87 for that express purpose. They are there to put the brakes on emotional panic selling that may occur during a single trading day and thus give traders time to calmly assess the situation. However, once we have seen the DOW turn decisively down with increasing volatility giving larger and larger down days, our second siren alert will be the occurrence of a Level 1 Halt.
By this time we can fully expect to see the likes of Bernanke and Geithner wheeled out and given airtime in the mainstream TV media. We will hear soft reassurances from the current engineers of the ongoing crisis. These are the men who did not see it coming; these are the men who assured us that the crisis was contained, that it was only a sub-prime mortgage problem; these are the men who failed to see the disease behind the symptoms; the forest for the trees. Since then we have seen the crisis encompass the entire mortgage industry, the banks and eventually filter down into main street and surface in the chronic unemployment figures. This time around the only thing they have intact is their botched credibility. They will not be heeded this time and the DOW plunge will continue.
Further, we can fully expect to see more panicked adhoc legislation pushed through by the SEC exercising its powers under the Securities Exchange Act like that of Section 12(k)(2):
“Given the importance of confidence in our financial markets as a whole, we have become concerned about recent sudden declines in the prices of a wide range of securities. Such price declines can give rise to questions about the underlying financial condition of an issuer, which in turn can create a crisis of confidence, without a fundamental underlying basis.”
The ‘fundamental underlying basis’ was that the whole system is riddled with fraud which was never policed by the SEC themselves. Talk about being disingenuous.
We will not actually require a level 2 or 3 halt. Successive days of continuous selling with no respite could see the DOW at the sub-6500 level and lower within a single week. No doubt the President will even address the nation and put out a call for calm. We will watch on TV as the financial tremors reverberate around world stock markets. Imagine the disruption caused by the closure of not just one major stock exchange but two or more. That’s when bad things start happening and the harsh reality starts to dawn about the actual mess we are in. Americans had a taste of that feeling when Katrina hit New Orleans, albeit that being a natural disaster whereas this financial one is man-made.
Why am I writing this article and scaring myself plus others half to death? – this is hopefully not necessarily the way things will pan out, but given the market fragility and the fundamental underlying problems that still exist, it must be considered as a valid possibility. At best, we are in for a long-term period of stagflation as all this debt is unwound from the system. If central banks continue to inflate the money supply in a misguided attempt to offset the contraction and we pass the point of no return then “Buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, Kansas is about to go bye-bye.”
“If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system flounders.” (von Mises)
“Me, I'm not predicting anything. Let the market itself tell the story. The important thing is to understand the implications of the story as it's being told.” (Richard Russell)
So how likely is this scenario? – it doesn’t really matter – it’s a Black Swan event, so even if there is the slightest chance of it happening, the consequences will be very far reaching indeed. Protect yourself against that probability.
Lawrence Tout
Investor
Email: blackswancrash@gmail.com
SOURCE: http://www.midasletter.com/commentary/091103_The-risk-of-catastrophic-deflationary-collapse.php
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Lawrence Tout
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