Existing home sales dropped by 1% in April, sending the annualized level down to 4.89 million units from March's 4.94 million level. Markets were expecting a 1.6% drop. The monthly decline reflected drops both in single-family homes (down 0.5%), while condos/co-ops sales dropped 5.2%.

The number of unsold homes on the market soared 10.5%. Measured in terms of months' supply, inventories were at 11.2 months, the highest level on record. The median price of existing homes increased 1.1% in April, although it was 8% lower on a year-over-year basis.

Existing home sales are now a full 33% below their September 2005 peak. They are also an annualized 5% lower than their first-quarter average, consistent with our forecast calling for another outsized decline in residential investment in the second quarter. Inventories in the sector jumped 10.5% and are now approximately 1.8 times their historical average. This implies that no near-term bottom is in sight for the housing market. Indeed, the NAHB housing market index ticked lower in May.

The elevated level of inventories also suggests that prices will have to fall further in order to assist in clearing the inventory glut. Eroding household net worth will be a weight on the consumer. However, disposable income has historically been the most important driver of consumer spending and the fiscal rebate checks should prop spending up in the second and third quarters.